New blog: ISM Central

Haaretz news flashes says: "IDF sources say military operation in West Bank cities will last three to four weeks".

If the IDF operations are serious enough, the PA might opt for another hudna afterward.

The late Ismail Abu Shanab answered called-in questions at IslamOnline in May.

I notice that MSNBC and Reuters are calling him a moderate. Israel says he was involved in the planning of Tuesday's bombing.

This article addresses the question of to what extent the PA is capable of cracking down on the "factions" (as they call them). Many think that Mohammed Dahlan is strong enough to do a lot in Gaza, elsewhere the PA/Abu Mazen is less strong but can still take action if Arafat were to approve.

The IAF killed Hamas leader Abu Shanab in Gaza(report). Ynet says that the 2 others killed were apparently his bodyguards Abu el-Omrein and Muamad Ravoud.

This article claims that Abu Mazen has threatened to resign if Arafat doesn't approve a plan to crack down on the various Islamikaze groups.

On Tuesday the IDF captured an Islamic Jihad cell on its way to Haifa, where they had apparently prearranged a hidden explosives belt. (report)

The responses I've seen around the web to yesterday's bus bombing are remarkably sensible for the most part.

But this report by the official Palestinian Authority news agency confirms Amos Harel's assessment that the PA really perceives itself as free of any responsibility to control the terrorists. And Helena Cobban - best known for her error-filled mega-fiskable columns in the Christian Science Monitor and her sycophantic history of the PLO - manages to calmly mention the bombing (and misuse the word "intentionality") in the middle of a ramble about "international humanitarian law".

I don't think that Charles Johnson has linked to Cobban's blog yet (but I'm sure he will soon).

Moods right now: anger and nausea

T. and I were in our car at a red light on King David Rd., just below Yafo Rd., when the sirens started. We knew there had been a terror attack after about the 3rd or 4th emergency vehicle passed by. The bombing had been several minutes drive ahead of us - the ambulances were evacuating the victims.

18 dead at the moment, scores injured, lots of children (Jpost, Haaretz). Israel Radio said that Abu Mazen met with members of Islamic Jihad after the attack and asked them to "continue the hudna". But this is it for the hudna because Israel isn't going to soak it up this time.

At a news conference in Beirut, Palestinian Authority External Affairs Minister Nabil Shaath asserted that the US-sponsored roadmap plan guaranteed the millions of descendents of 1948 Palestinian refugees a right to settle in pre-1967 Israel (report).

It sounds like Shaath was making this claim so as to gain support for the PA's roadmap stance from hardline Palestinians in Lebanon. But when Palestinians blame Israel for not meeting its"roadmap" obligations, remember that they likely have in mind things like prisoner releases, the security fence, or accepting refugees - as distinct from the committments that are actually in the roadmap.

The consensus in the weekend Israeli newspapers was that the hudna is not likely to last much longer.

More: The updated version of the article above also quotes PA Information Minister from an interview on Israeli Army Radio this morning. Amr said that the PA does not seek to change the Jewish character of Israel and that a pragmatic solution to the refugee issue will be found. In my opinion there's no reason to think that this moderate view is much more than flattery. Plenty of Israeli leftists have presented to the Israeli public the claim that the Palestinian leadership is secretly moderate - only to have been thoroughly humiliated afterward. The most notable example is the unrepentant Yossi Beilin (see here).

Daniel Zamir (John Zorn's Israeli saxophone protege) has a new ensemble called "Talmaists in Action" (whatever that means). Zamir is now a Habad hasid, so it's unusual that he would choose to perform at Hagada Hasmalit (The Left Bank), which is an arts center run by (and in the headquarters of) the Israeli Communist Party.

Thanks to Ernzy for some thoughtful feedback:

#1

Is it not at least somewhat rational to correlate the Hamas bombing with the killing of the Hamas activists last week? The IDF is feeding the same line they did after the bombing following the attempted Rantisi asassination. That the bombings were planned in advance and were not a result of the asassinations.

ernzy
  
#2

To Ernzy,

"somewhat rational"? The answer to your question is "yes".

But Israel has mostly sat idly while the PA (in open breach of their "roadmap" commitments" blah blah) permits Hamas etc. to pursue rearming/regrouping/missile testing in many places.

If after several weeks of doing nothing the IDF determined that one facility in Nablus must be eliminated, who is "responsible" for the breaking of the "hudna"?

It's a bit surreal that we're discussing it in terms of "who started it?". ie. since attacks on civilians are supposed to be crimes against humanity etc.

Also I think it's pretty well established that the post-Rantisi bombing was planned in advance.

Tal G.
  
  
#5

I was not referring to previous attacks. All attacks against civilians are despicable IMO.

Tal, I think it is a bit disingenuous to say the IDF has "done nothing" or "sat idly" until last week. It is well documented that about as many people have been arrested as were let go in the prisoner releases.

And while it is plainly stipulated in the roadmap that the PA disassemble the "terrorist infrastructure" we all know that a full assault against Hamas et. al will do more damage to Palestinian society and in effect Israeli society than benefit it. Speaking of which, the roadmap also clearly states that Israel cease form all settlement building immediately which it has not .. so let's be fair about this. Both sides, for a change, are doing as little as possible while demanding the world from the other side.

ernzy


  
#6
Aug 12 2003, 03:50 pm

>Tal, I think it is a bit disingenuous to say the IDF has "done nothing" or "sat idly" until last week. It is well documented that about as many
>people have been arrested as were let go in the prisoner releases.

The arrests were AFAIK not attempts to seriously damage the infrastructure of the "militant groups" (I can use sneer quotes myself). In at least some instances the arrests were to prevent planned attacks (and hence strengthened the "hudna").

>And while it is plainly stipulated in the roadmap that the PA disassemble the "terrorist infrastructure" we all know that a full assault against

>Hamas et. al will do more damage to Palestinian society and in effect Israeli society than benefit it.

That's the view more associated with the Clinton/EU approach to things than the "Bush speech July[?] 2002" approach. Those (like yourself) who keep saying "withdrawal first, peace later" need to address the quite justifiable question of the average Israeli:: "when is 'later'?"

The usual or implied answer to this question is always "after there's peace", which is a kind of circular answer. To mention "taking risks for peace" reminds Israelis of Clinton (and Arafat). The view that national rights are unconditional is popular only when applied to Palestinians. Noone advocates regional destabilization as a necessary price for Kurdish, Chechen, or Kashmir national rights.

> Speaking of which, the roadmap also
>clearly states that Israel cease form all settlement building immediately which it has not .. so let's be fair about this.

I've talked about the outposts issue below. Is there still any construction or expansion of Efrat, Ariel etc. going on? I don't think so. Granted that the decision to build 22 units inside the existing perimeter of a Gaza settlement (don't remember which one) was defended by a tortured reading of the "roadmap" clause. But the Palestinians (and hence the world) are much more concerned about prisoner releases and the security fence.

>Both sides, for a change, are doing as little as possible while demanding the world from the other side.

I disagree. Very significant Israeli actions include: IDF withdrawals from Gaza and Bethlehem, transfer of tax revenue, limitation of operations against "militant" infrastructure. Significant Palestinian actions include a serious reduction in the amount of anti-Israel incitement in the media.

Tal G

Today's bombings probably do not indicate the end of the hudna and the roadmap. Like the Oslo process, these things have a life of their own.

If things work according to the established pattern:

1. Israel will be widely blamed for provoking today's Islamikaze attacks
2. There will be intense pressure on Israel not to respond to the attacks combined with familiar calls on the PA to take action against Fatah, et. al. The latter will be ignored.
3. There will be another plan, with a name of its own, intended to resurrect and strengthen the hudna and roadmap

2 Israelis dead in 2 suicide bombings (jpost, haaretz).

A prisoner release was halted in the middle. The bus just turned around.

Police says that 10 suicide bombings have been prevented in recent weeks.

I'm just waiting for the international blah-blahs to claim that the hudna would have gone on forever if only the IDF hadn't acted against a Hamas bomb-factory in Nablus.

The bombings (and the apparent end of the "ceasefire") was not big news in my office. I didn't here about them until a couple of hours after.

This article from WaPo is the first that I've seen that describes what is really meant by "settlement outposts":

Outposts generally begin as a dirt road to a single cargo container, cell phone antenna or water tower. Then houses are erected, but infrastructure typically remains rudimentary for the first residents. It is only when such additions as a community center, nursery school, playground area or paved roads emerge that an outpost begins to take on the characteristics of a settlement, though some settlement opponents consider any outpost with people living in it to be a settlement.

The "homes" are generally portable trailers. The one "outpost" that I've seen was on a hill just outside of Efrat and had about half a dozen trailers from what I remember. The first time I saw it there was a dirt road. About a year later it had been paved.

When the IDF takes the outposts down, it's not difficult for the settlers to put them back up on a different hilltop. That's the reason I personally don't appreciate why the outposts are such a major political issue ...

So how many of the 105 outposts that are said to currently exist actually have what WaPo quite reasonably considers "characteristics of a settlement"?

Huwaida Arraf responds to accusations that the International Solidarity Movement has used violence and cooperated with terrorists. Her central point is the bit about how "Palestinians are resistors, so they can't be terrorists. ... the IDF are terrorists" (and note she is addressing an Israeli audience). The rest of her self-righteous posturing can't conceal her lack of objection towards what most people would term terrorist groups, or her support for destructive behavior.

Interesting article by Zeev Schiff on the attempts to get Egypt and Jordan to return their ambassadors to Israel.

Did he really say this?

Neither Israel nor the Palestinians can carry out all the terms of the road map peace plan, due to political constraints on both sides, Interior Minister Avraham Poraz told the Foreign Press Association yesterday.

The IDF shot and killed a Palestinian who was planting a bomb roadside near Tulkarm (report). Here's the official Palestinian news agency report on the incident, which neglects to mention the bit about the bomb, and makes it sound like the IDF just shot him at random.

The PA also claims that Fatah's gunning down of an Israeli family driving near Bethlehem on Sunday was its "reaction" to a supposed Israeli police killing of a Palestinian taxi driver earlier in the day - though the Israeli and foreign media have absolutely no mention of any such incident.

When ISM-types talk about all the supposed Israeli atrocities and then can't name a single specific incident, it's probably because they've been hearing a lot of this kind of stuff.

More: The fellow who was shot near Tulkarm was a longstanding member of the Tanzim named Nihad Qassem (report).

Translation of the Israel Prisons Service webpage that links to the list of Palestinian prisoners whose release is scheduled:

PRISONS SERVICE
A Security Organization with a Social Purpose

Notice regarding release of Palestinian prisoners who are residents of the Judea/Samaria [ie. West Bank] and Gaza regions

In the process of the negotiations with the Palestinian Authority the government has decided to release Palestinian prisoners and administrative detainees. Below is the list of those who are marked for release.

The list includes the name of the prisoner, ID number, sentence, chapter under which he was sentenced, court case number, name of the court, and date that he would be released were it not for the reduced sentence. Additionally, the list contains the names of administrative detainees who are marked for release.

It is to be emphasized that this list does not include any prisoner or detainee with "blood on his hands" and that release of prisoners and detainees is conditional upon their signing a form of obligation not to return to violent activity in the future.

[phone numbers for further information]

Attorney Hayim Shmuelivitz
"Tat-gunder"
Legal adviser to the Prisons Service

Haaretz bulletins says that there was a gunfight between the IDF and the PA near the Egyptian border in Gaza. Earlier 4 anti-tank missiles were fired on an IDF position there. Also, Palestinians opened fire on the IDF near Ramallah.

Aaargh...

The Guardian ("Palestinians condemn Israel's prisoner release list"):

The figure includes 183 inmates convicted of activities ranging from stone-throwing to membership of "terrorist organisations", and 139 "administrative detainees" held, without charge, on security grounds

In truth, the list (Hebrew link) includes plenty of people charged with owning and distributing bombs and weapons (eg. "#137 Marzuk Awud Mahmoud Abu Naim - possession of a bomb, contact man for placing a bomb", "#166 Wadia Mahmad Hasin Kabaja - Firing a gun at a person", etc.).

Not to suggest that the rest of the Guardian article is any less vile.

Why should Israel release these dangerous people? Certainly it doesn't work as a "confidence-building measure" or indication of good will....